I appreciate the more balanced tone here, so let me respond in kind.

You are absolutely right that a single poll, especially one commissioned by an advocacy group, should not be treated as definitive. That is why I did not base my argument solely on the March 2025 poll. It is part of a broader pattern that has emerged across multiple public polls over the past few years. YouGov, Redfield & Wilton and Omnisis, for example, have all shown support for independence gradually increasing, particularly among younger voters. The private poll simply highlights and reinforces that existing trend.

I also agree that we need more consistent data to fully establish whether pro-independence views are retained as voters age. However, the evidence we do have suggests that this is happening. Those who were in favour at 25 still tend to be in favour at 35. While that trend needs more time to be confirmed definitively, it is already significant enough to warrant attention, at least in my opinion.

The main point here is not that independence is guaranteed or inevitable, but that the Welsh Lib Dems have traditionally relied on younger voters, and younger voters are consistently more likely to support independence than older ones. Ignoring that shift may not matter today, but it is a strategic risk in the longer term.

And just to add, I fully agree with your final point. Independence should only happen if it has clear and sustained support within Wales. That is the only democratic basis on which it could, or perhaps even should, proceed.

I welcome disagreement, but it helps if it engages with what I actually wrote.

You are right that private polls should be treated with caution. I did not spell out those limitations clearly enough in the article, and I take that point. But even putting the YesCymru poll to one side, the very data you have shared backs up the trend I am highlighting. In 2014, support for independence was around 12 percent. Now it is at 35 percent, or 41 percent if you exclude “don’t knows”. That is a clear and sustained increase over the past decade.

On youth support, the figures you show are from 2023 and are already outdated. More recent polling consistently shows that support for independence among younger voters is considerably higher than among the general population, often by a large margin, for example 72% in the most recent poll if “don’t knows” are excluded.

The Welsh Lib Dems do not 'need' to adopt a pro-independence stance, but ignoring a steadily growing shift in public opinion, especially among the voter base they have traditionally relied on, is politically short-sighted. Recognising this is not wishful thinking, it is basic strategic awareness.