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Do I really need a firewall for my server?
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Because it's easy to accidentally run services or set up services temporarily and forget that you left them running. With UPnP being able to automatically/dynamically open ports, a firewall is just another layer of protection. You can also configure firewalls to ignore packets silently or log dropped packets, and if applications ever get new versions and end up listening on new ports, you would have to manually allow the ports. Maybe you want to have one part of an application accessible through the firewall but not another part of the application.
Plus, like you said, country blocking is another feature which personally I think is nice to have, and there are also other features too like being able to throttle connections, especially with things like fail2ban.
It's just another layer of protection, and it ensures that everything you run is deliberate.
It honestly depends on how you run things.
If everything is in containers, chances are you're already getting the benefits of a firewall. For example, with podman or docker, you already explicitly expose ports, which is already a form of firewall. If you're running things outside of containers, then yeah, I agree with you, there's too much risk of something opening up a port you didn't expect.
Everything I run is with podman, which exposes stuff with iptables rules. That's the same thing a basic firewall does, so adding a firewall is superfluous unless you're using it to do something else, like geoip filtering.
When in doubt, use a firewall. But depending on the setup, it could be unnecessary.