In January, Canadian pollsters and political pundits struggled to find fresh ways to describe the bleak prospects of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party, musing whether it would be a wipeout of existential proportions, or merely a catastrophic blowout.

But fresh polling released by three companies this week shows a stunning reversal of fortunes for the party: newly minted prime minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are projected to secure a majority government.

The outcome has little precedent in Canadian history, reflecting the outsized role played by an unpredictable US president, and it underscores the incentives for Carney to call a snap election in the coming days.

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