If I could predict what happens to the tech market when XYZ policy is enacted, I wouldn't be posting on Lemmy during my tea breaks. Whatever policies end up sticking around, success is gonna require a lot of us having ideas, trying them out, and recombining them.
But I'll claim this about my personal metric of "success": If the future of open source looks like copying the extractive data-mining model of big tech and hoping we can shove the entire history of human thought into a blender faster than them, I think we've failed.