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Nvidia falls 14% in premarket trading as China's DeepSeek triggers global tech sell-off (www.cnbc.com)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/53805638

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[–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

Yeah. I don't believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. "China", maybe 2 years, probably less.

However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true. I mean, it hasn't been true for a really long time. Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That's probably true for DeepSeek as well.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

    I have to concede that point to some degree, since i guess i hold similar views with Tesla's value vs the rest of the automotive Industry. But i still think that the basic hirarchy holds true with nvidia being significantly ahead of the pack.

    My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.

    Imo you are too optimistic with those estimations, particularly with Intel and China, although i am not an expert in the field.

    As i see it AMD seems to have a quite decent product with their instinct cards in the server market on the hardware side, but they wish they'd have something even close to CUDA and its mindshare. Which would take years to replicate. Intel wish they were only a year behind Nvidia. And i'd like to comment on China, but tbh i have little to no knowledge of their state in GPU development. If they are "2 years, probably less" behind as you say, then they should have something like the rtx 4090, which was released end of 2022. But do they have something that even rivals the 2000 or 3000 series cards?

    However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true.

    But the issue is they all make their chips at the same manufacturer, TSMC, even Intel in the case of their GPUs. So they can't really differentiate much on manufacturing costs and are also competing on the same limited supply. So no one can offer 80% of performance at 10% price, or even close to it. Additionally everything around the GPU (datacenters, rack space, power useage during operation etc.) also costs, so it is only part of the overall package cost and you also want to optimize for your limited space. As i understand it datacenter building and power delivery for them is actually another limiting factor right now for the hyperscalers.

    Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.

    Google yes with their TPUs, but the others all use Nvidia or AMD chips to train. Amazon has their Graviton CPUs, which are quite competitive, but i don't think they have anything on the GPU side. DeepSeek is way to small and new for custom chips, they evolved out of a hedge fund and just use nvidia GPUs as more or less everyone else.

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  • [–] 1 point 2 years ago (1 child)

    Thanks for high effort reply.

    The Chinese companies probably use SIMC over TSMC from now on. They were able to do low volume 7 nm last year. Also, Nvidia and "China" are not on the same spot on the tech s-curve. It will be much cheaper for China (and Intel/AMD) to catch up, than it will be for Nvidia to maintain the lead. Technological leaps and reverse engineering vs dimishing returns.

    Also, expect that the Chinese government throws insane amounts of capital at this sector right now. So unless Stargate becomes a thing (though I believe the Chinese invest much much more), there will not be fair competition (as if that has ever been a thing anywhere anytime). China also have many more tools, like optional command economy. The US has nothing but printing money and manipulating oligarchs on a broken market.

    I'm not sure about 80/10 exactly of course, but it is in that order of magnitude, if you're willing to not run newest fancy stuff. I believe the MI300X goes for approx 1/2 of the H100 nowadays and is MUCH better on paper. We don't know the real performance because of NDA (I believe). It used to be 1/4. If you look at VRAM per $, the ratio is about 1/10 for the 1/4 case. Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.

    So, my bet is max 2 years for "China". At least when it comes to high-end performance per dollar. Max 1 year for AMD and Intel (if Intel survive).

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago*

    If we are talking the manufacturing side, rather than design/software i am very curious to see how SIMC develops. You are absolutely right that there is a big advantage for the second mover, since they can avoid dead ends and already know on an abstract level what is working. And diminishing returns also help make gaps be slightly less relevant.

    However i think we can't just apply the same timeline to them and say "they have 7nm now" and it took others x years to progress from there to 5nm or 3nm, because these steps include the major shift from DUV to EUV, which was in the making for a very long time. And that's a whole different beast compared to DUV, where they are also probably still relying on ASML machines for the smallest nodes (although i think producing those domestically is much more feasible). Eventually they'll get there, but i think this isn't trivial and will take more than 2 years for sure.

    On the design side vs Nvidia the hyperscalers like Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu or maybe even a smaller newcomer might be able to create something competitive for their specific usecases (like the Google TPUs). But Nvidia isn't standing still either, so i think getting close to parity will be extremely hard there aswell.

    Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.

    Well to what degree ROCm matures and closes the gap is probably the question. Like i said, i agree that their hardware seems quite capable in many ways, although my knowledge here is quite limited. But AMD so far hasn't really shown that they can compete with Nvidia on the software side.

    As far as Intel goes, being slow in my reply helps my point. Just today Intel canceled their next-generation GPU Falcon Shore, making it an internal development step only. As much as i am rooting for them, it will need a major shift in culture and talent for them to right the ship. Gaudi 3 wasn't successful (i think they didn't even meet their target of $500mio sales) and now they probably don't have any release in 2025, assuming Jaguar Lake is 2026 since Falcon Shore was slated for end of this year. In my books that is the definition of being behind more than 1 year, considering they are not even close to parity right now.

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