In part we agree. However there are two things to consider.

For one, the llms are plateauing pretty much now. So they are dependant on more quality input. Which, basically, they replace. So perspecively imo the learning will not work to keep this up. (in other fields like nature etc there's comparatively endless input for training, so it will keep on working there).

The other thing is, as we likely both agree, this is not intelligence. It has it's uses. But you said to replace programming, which in my opinion will never work: were missing the critical intelligence element. It might be there at some point. Maybe llm will help there, maybe not, we might see. But for now we don't have that piece of the puzzle and it will not be able to replace human work with (new) thought put into it.