Since '02 we've had two sub-4-win seasons. And eight seasons of 4 or fewer wins, including the year after we went to the Super Bowl.

We've been on the cusp of 3-wins for a third of our seasons over the last 2 decades. Last year we had 6 wins with a playoff team before downgrading.

Maybe 3-wins is a bit of a stretch for expectations. But it would not be at all surprising.