Utter bullshit

Thanks for the summation of your reply. Headlines are usually bolded and in bigger type than the body text, though..

The polling companies are often separate from the media companies. Some are even academic institutions

And there sre hundreds if not thousands from which to choose. The media choose the ones that best fit the narrative they've already written.

And they are incentivised to be accurate

Nope. They are incentivized to deliver the results that their customers want, regardless of accuracy.

Imagine being the one polling organisation that can call elections!

Even if doing so consistently was possible (which it isn't), that wouldn't be the most profitable thing to do. See above on incentive.

What y'all are misunderstanding, however, is the difference between poll numbers and probability of winning

Nope, I understand full well the difference between the popular vote, which is what's polled, and the electoral vote which is a big part of the aforementioned system being broken in favor of the American Fascist Party AKA the GOP.