I'm jumping in after skimming so much long discussion... But I do see a possible link here. COVID and the lockdowns have shaken up a lot of society. I remember even back when the anti-mask and BLM protests happened in America about the same time (I'm not American btw, just seeing some news) feeling like the stress and shut-in-ness of lockdowns and COVID fear is probably part of the fuel for people to protest: it gives a sort of release from that.

Now the economy's been shaken up so much, and more people are finding it hard to get an acceptable job. The comfortable life trajectory many people were on has taken a hit and wealth they assumed was safe and assured (including things like house-buying prospects) has crumbled beneath them.

Many are also suffering brain fog and Long COVID, making life feel less stable, and hitting their job prospects.

The intensity of COVID responses also seems to have given much fuel to American political disunity, and hatred and resentment, as well as political/civil frustration elsewhere in the world.

I don't know how Russia has been, but I imagine there's some of the same, at least. And all this unsettling of life and intangible worry, puts people in a much readier situation to rise up around some flash point - such as a war - or to be desperate enough to concede whatever demands their government makes of them - such as conscription for dubious end.

Not that that's the whole picture by any means, but, perhaps, there is some link from lockdowns to global war.