Yeah, we don't know yet. On the one hand, it's still the early days of (some) people leaving Reddit - and who knows if they won't go back.
On the other hand, the API payment structure and the shutdown of 3PAs hasn't even happened yet. Even people who are completely oblivious to the situation but who are using a 3PA will have to decide if they'll be able to deal with the shitty official app, if they'll just stop browsing Reddit on mobile, or if they're willing to take a look at alternatives.