Apple

This deal will likely be the end of Google. Apple gets the rev share, then takes that money and reinvests that money back into its product which in turn causes more people to leave Android for Apple which in turn means Google has to pay more money in total to Apple and the process repeats. This is bad for Google for two reasons. 1/ Rev share to preinstall Google search is much lower on Android devices than Apple. So their cost goes up. 2/ Google loses more power to have Google preinstaled. (It’s easier to have Android OEMs preinstall Google search).

Ultimately I feel as if this RSA deal will be the end of Google because as Apple is taking more share, I think Apple will have a lot of negotiating room to get a higher rate in the future. If for example, in the US 87% of the population uses an iPhone, Apple threatening its own search engines will cause Google to raise rates. (Note in the US, 87% of teenagers have an iPhone so if that trend hold constant, I could for sure Apple having 87% market share). Literally Apple is becoming the gate keeper to HVUs.

Yeah you can say Android has 1B users etc but those users hardly monetize for Google search. IMO it’s better to have the HVUs and Apple is increasingly having those users on lock.