this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2023
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more charitably to US planning you could also conclude that America wanted to make the war costly for Russia but doesn't actually care about Ukrainian ownership of the Crimea or what happens to Ukraine
For sure, but even with that in mind I would argue that things have gone catastrophically wrong for US.
I'm not so sure of that. The war definitely proved that America shouldn't fight a direct war against Russia but everyone already knew that because of nuclear weapons.
The war was definitely more costly to the Russians than the gain is worth to them and America can recoup their losses by asset stripping what is left of Ukraine
You have to look at this in a greater context because Ukraine is only a small piece of the puzzle.
Geopolitical damage to US has been enormous already. US sanctions on Russia resulted in a whole new economic system developing outside the dollar. Russia now openly trades with countries like Cuba, Iran, and DPRK because they no longer worry about secondary sanctions. US has spent decades trying to isolate these countries and freeze them out of the global economy. US is being openly defied by majority of the world now, and has been unable to strong arm countries outside the west into following its sanctions on Russia. This has exposed the limits of US power globally. The BRICS is growing rapidly, and it's now a bigger economic bloc than the G7. Meanwhile, US and its allies are going into economic recession. The freezing of Russian assets by the west has shown countries that dollar based financial system is not safe. We're now even seeing US allies such as the Saudis and India turn away from US.
Militarily, US has been exposed as the emperor with no clothes. All the NATO wonder weapons are burning in Ukraine, and everyone can now see that there is nothing special about western technology or tactics.
Until the war started, it was taken as a given by majority of the world that US was an unchallenged hegemon and that nobody could stand up to it. If the war was avoided, then this myth could've been perpetuated for years to come. The war heralds the end of the unipolar moment that arose when USSR dissolved, and that's what makes it such a monumental blunder. The processes that have been started as a result of the war cannot be reversed.
that is a good point while this was bad for Russia. Russia have responded with closer ties to China which is definitely not what the US wanted and the way they so openly exposed US financial systems as potentially weaponisable really shook faith in them
Exactly, and it looks like Russia was far better prepared for this than US was.
I think America tried to do a repeat of supporting anti-soviet forces in afghanistan and likely forgot to account for China
I get the impression that US misread the moment in every way. They misjudged Russia, they misunderstood their own abilities, and failed to take Global South into account. It's hands down the biggest debacle US has suffered in living memory.
I dunno about that, the US did murder a million people in Iraq and occupy Afghanistan for two decades only for the Taliban to take over in like 3 days when they left. Give it a few more years to develop and then maybe it'll overshadow those two.
Sure, but those were localized debacles that didn't affect overall geopolitical position of US. Proxy war in Ukraine has done more to erode US geopolitical position than anything else US managed to do.