Yeah, I don't think the cunning plan is going to pan out. First of all, the US can't really do anything about Russia selling oil in Eurasia. So, China, India, DRPK, Vietnam, and others are going to be pushed closer to Russia in the short term. And China stands to be the big winner in the long run having invested massively into renewables while nobody else has.

Meanwhile, western states will become pretty much entirely dependent on the US, but they're also becoming weaker as a result. The relationship here is inherently parasitic, the US will keep squeezing the vassals harder and harder and they will have no chance to develop.

On top of it all, there's now serious talk in Washington regarding just cutting Asia loose https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/a-second-island-chain-strategy-for-asia/

Kavanagh ran the Army Strategy program at the RAND Corporation, the Pentagon's semi-official think tank, then was a senior fellow at Carnegie. She also teaches at Georgetown and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. So, she very much represents what the thinking is right now.

She proposes that every single mutual defense treaty in Asia be effectively terminated or phased out, including those with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, and that U.S. forces should retrench to the second island chain, far away from China’s coast. Her proposal would amount to undoing the entire security order the U.S. has built in the region over three quarters of a century.

And I think this is the most likely outcome. The US will have no choice but to retrench and focus on dominating its own hemisphere. This is gonna suck for Latin America and Canada in particular. But the role of the US as a global empire is fading fast.