A/C guy who's the son of an A/C guy here. Heat pumps lose efficiency the colder it gets. I wouldn't bother with one if you're in a northern climate. Lower midwest, you might be able to save money with a heat pump over natural gas, but it will depend heavily on the cost of the respective energy. For me, in the central US, we have great prices on gas and somewhat crappy prices on electricity (vs most surrounding regions) and it's definitely cheaper for me to stick with gas heat.
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