How much headroom do you think businesses have? Losing even 5% is a big deal, and the only lever they have is laying off staff.

The people who own jack-daniels, for instance, shed 600+ jobs this year because of the reduction in demand. Even 600 seems small, but to a town that's a lot of local income. And when they see that same 5, 10, 20% drop (more if it's a small town) then the losses will both amplify and hit more businesses in parallel ... which could have their own layoffs. It's an amplifying, self-feeding monster.