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[–] 6 points 1 week ago (2 children)

I'm sure that all those people who sat out the last election will come out and vote in large numbers this time, right?

RIGHT!?

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  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    The Republicans think so. So, they have people on social media — I've even seen them on Lemmy — trying to convince everyone that the Democrats are no better, so they may as well stay home.

    Also, more Americans sit out midterms anyway, when the presidency isn't up for a vote, but the Republicans are extra worried this year and have been out in force.

    Waste their money.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago (1 child)

    I’m sure lore will come out. And probably MAGA is losing some small numbers. But are those margins enough to overcome the purging of voter rolls and other literal election fraud? I hope so.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 days ago

    I don't expect more to come out. Election after election, Americans don't go to the polls. You don't need electoral gambits. You just need good, ol' old-timey American sloth.

    In the past half century the average percent voting at midterms has been 40% VEP or so. It's been as low as about 35% (2014) and it's been as high as about 50% (2018), but over all, year after year, it dials in to about 40%. And for presidential elections it's been about 58% over the same rough time period, again with some variation here and there, but not by enough to make any meaningful difference.

    I see no reason to think that this one will be any different. I would very much like to be surprised and see turnouts in the 80+% VEP range, but I won't. I'll be very surprised if this one exceeds 60%. Or even 50%.

    Sloth is too powerful a force.

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