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[OC] People tried to beat the stock market 100K+ times in a simulation. They lost, a lot. (thelemmy.club)
submitted 2 weeks ago by to c/dataisbeautiful@lemmy.world
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Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it's basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it's not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here's the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game's own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

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[–] 3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 child)

Let me put things this way: I worked in Investment Banking as a software developer for the front-office - so directly with traders - at one point in my career, and if people think those guys and galls aren't breaking ever trading rule and regulation (especially insider trading and market manipulation) whilst the Market Regulator very purposefully looks the other way, I have a piece of water crossing property to sell you.

(And this is just normal trading, not even algorithmic trading, were the whole thing is rigged in even more reliable ways like faster than retail access to market information or direct access to the order stack)

Playing the Market as Retail is a mug's game.

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