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[OC] People tried to beat the stock market 100K+ times in a simulation. They lost, a lot. (thelemmy.club)
submitted 2 weeks ago by to c/dataisbeautiful@lemmy.world
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Hello,

I made beatthecouch.com in July and it's basically a game where you try to beat the S&P 500 and buy/sell when you want. Your opponent is a couch. It buys on day one and never sells.

Now over 100K+ games later, the hypothesis stands: it's not wise to try to trade and time the market. Here's the original data from the actual games itself.

Source: the game's own database, every completed game Jul 12 to Aug 28. Tool: Python and matplotlib. Market data: S&P 500 daily total returns 1928 to 2019.

thanks!

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[–] 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

Indexes are great, but S&P 500 is a US focused index. Would you have the same results if you picked an index based on Britain or Italy over the same time span?

I feel like that sort of thing is going to matter as China keeps rising while the US keeps shooting itself in the foot.

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