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I built a free game where you try to beat a couch at timing the market. Over 80k plays later, the couch usually wins. (beatthecouch.com)
submitted 1 month ago by to c/internetisbeautiful@lemmy.world
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Solo project I've been building this month, wanted to share here. The rules:

You get $10,000 and two secret years of real S&P 500 history, drawn from 1928 to 2019 (daily data, dividends included; your cash earns T-bill rates while you hide). One button: BUY or SELL. Your opponent is a couch. It buys at the start and never moves.

Every finished game is audited by 1,000 monkeys. It's a permutation test 1,000 replays with your same time in the market and same number of trades, on random days. Beat 90% of the monkeys and your win is stamped TIMED THE MARKET. Anything less is stamped LUCKY, in red ink, on your settlement document.

About 84,000 games have been played so far. The couch has won 63% of them. Roughly 1 game in 9 ends in a win that survives the monkey audit.

There's also a daily hand, same secret window for everyone, streaks, and a public ledger of humanity vs the couch.

If you have time, I'd love feedback, and I will answer any methodology questions, thanks!

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[–] 3 points 1 month ago*

Replace the word "couch" with "do nothing."

Or "buy and hold strategy." It is boringly effective and over the long term always beats individuals trying to time the market.

Much of the game is meta referencing finance (Bogelhead) memes.

On the topic, I strongly recommend any or all of: "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel, "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" by John Bogle, and "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" by Mel Lindauer.

Kudos to OP, btw. Great stuff. I look forward to playing it later and having my kids play it as well.

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