The internet survived the Dotcom bubble. Many businesses died, but some survived. The glut of hardware from the dead will end up in the hands of individuals, upstart companies, and the corporations that outlived their peers.

And that resulted in there being 5 websites with fewer people self-hosting so I don't know why you use that as an example of decentralization.

If there is a general demand for AI after the AI bubble like there was for the internet post dotcom bubble then people will always gravitate toward the most convenient way to get it which is through the cloud powered by someone else super computer.

Right, but what % of people are currently using/demanding inference right now?

Do you expect that % to change between now and 2030?

Unless you expect demand to decrease, I don't really see how the pricing of the hardware will decrease.

Let's say the Pets.com of the AI world ends up going bankrupt and their RAM hits the market. Do you expect that the demand for that RAM will be negligible such that pricing returns to earlier levels?

Your predictive model relies on companies that have hardware going out of business and then other people buying up that hardware, but isn't accounting for the levels of demand that the market will have for that secondhand hardware even if it ends up existing from failed firms.

Unless the demand shifts, the more likely scenario is that companies going out of business will be able to sell off their RAM at higher prices than they bought it at.

There'd need to be a significant inference memory reduction advance (possible) coupled with stagnating or reduced inference demand (unlikely) to see prices come back down.