China does not yet have the technology to overtake Taiwan.
China absolutely does have the technology to overtake Taiwan, and if you look at the history of how fast Chinese technology develops, it should be obvious that it's not going to take long. Look at what happened with solar panels, EVs, batteries, phones, etc. In every case, once China ramped up research and production, they leapfrogged the rest of the world within years. China sees chip production as a national security issue, they will be pouring state level resources into it.
Meanwhile here's what Stanford has to say about AI https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeaways-from-the-2026-report


Not only has China basically closed the gap already, but they're doing it at a tiny fraction of the cost.