It's not about how much you make. It's about your deductions.

All of your property tax is deductible. All of the interest on your mortgage is deductible. If your income is low enough, all with the interest paid on your student loans is deductible. Health care costs are deductible.

If those plus your other deductions cross whatever the threshold is, then you itemize and if it doesn't, you take the lump.

That's why I like FreeTaxUSA.com because it actually does all of your deductions and then tells you which one is the better choice for you.