I am far from dumb. I got 60/60 problems correct on a proctored Raven’s Progressive Matrices as a teenager. That places my pattern recognition much higher than most of the world’s population. I taught myself C++ when I was six years old in 1997.

You’ve created a strawman by recasting my argument to a point that I am not making. I did not say “trust vendor promises” or “ignore current failures.” I said present-state-only evaluation is a bad way to judge emerging technology.

Engineering forecasting is not limited to closed-form physics. It also uses empirical progress, deployment data, cost curves, failure modes, and observed capability gains. Your pig analogy only works if AI had no demonstrated utility and no measurable improvement. That is plainly false.

Criticize cost, energy use, incentives, etc. Those are real arguments. But “some promises are hype, therefore the whole field is slop and cannot improve” is not analysis. It is just cynicism with insults attached.