I don't know if I would...
For obvious reasons, I could never forgive myself if I promptly got to watch 200 people get butchered by a trolley immune to the laws of physics.
But even if these fairly comfortable 99% odds turned out in my favor... During the years of mental health counselling following my abduction and forced participation in twisted ethics games, I would have to listen to people telling me I saved someone and did the right thing, while knowing that I objectively did not. That I put two times more lives at risk than by not pulling the lever.
If you have 10 000 train tracks, but at the end of one of them is a nuke blowing up a city of 10 million people, do you pull the damned lever ? I sure don't.