When you flip it the original track is no longer possible, so it would not be considered. If it was considered, you would also have to consider the one person on that track. If all 5 tracks were equally likely the expected value would be 1.2 deaths.

This doesn't seem like it is similar to Monty Hall. In Monty Hall you win by switching every time unless you picked the winning door first. That's why you have a 2/3 chance to win by switching. This is just a random chance.