Waffling on moving to Codeberg because it’s not 100% perfect means supporting GitHub and drops the possibility of federated forges to 0%. Moving to Codeberg makes the future of federated forges go up to greater than 0%.

Fair, but there's a third path that exists: spin up your own instance. Yeah, it's more administration work, yeah it's significantly more painful for contributors to contribute for now. But the more stand-alone, non-federated, community-operated forges are out there, the more appealing the federation glue needed to connect them all together becomes.