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Valve amended the Steam survey for December 2025 - Linux actually hit another all-time high (www.gamingonlinux.com)
submitted 9 months ago by to c/linux_gaming@lemmy.world
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[–] 115 points 9 months ago (14 children)

I like that the line appears to take an exponential growth curve. Hopefully it will keep going. Microslop sure is helping right now.

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  • [–] 54 points 9 months ago* (7 children)

    I don't think it can keep going at an exponential pace, but I think we can pass 5% in Q2 maybe Q3, especially with Steam Machine

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  • [–] 38 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    It must level off at some point, if anything for purely mathematical reasons. But the higher it gets before that happens the better.

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  • [–] 28 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) (1 child)

    The big players are driving this trend. Nvidia, Microsoft, Intel, etc are making the old status quo too expensive and obnoxious.

    Adoption typically takes an s-shaped or sigmoid curve. A slow start, rapid growth, and then stagnation.

    I'm curious whether gamers are going to pull Linux desktop into the mainstream. Discord is a good example. For many years only gamers knew what it was, now most of the users on aren't using it for gaming, and it has fundamentally changed the platform.

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago

    Luckily Linux is an open source system with tons of variety and tailor made environments for specific use cases whereas Discord is a for profit company that shoves unwanted features like Nitro down everyone's throats for their endless revenue chasing. So if it takes off because of gamers, we'll see lots of needed features and bugfixes.

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  • [–] 0 points 9 months ago (4 children)

    In a constrained environment it will function more like a sigmoid curve. This looks like evidence that we're approaching the linear slope in the middle.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago* (1 child)

    That doesn't actually make much sense for Linux adoption stats though

    As linux gets bigger, more people will hear about it and consider it, there will be more pressure for Linux support, generally more focus on Linux

    It seems like it will indeed be roughly exponential, until it levels out sigmoidly near 100%.

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  • [–] 2 points 9 months ago

    You just described Sigmoid curves, roughly speaking. The only issue is your incorrect use of "exponential".

    The idea is that it's not exponential for two main reasons:

    1. It caps at 100%. You can't grow infinitely.
    2. You also need to consider the reverse: going the other way, going from 99% to 98% is a ~1.01% decline. Going down from 2% to 1% is losing half your remaining users. That's huge.

    Exponential growth is used colloquially for any situation where there's an upward curve to the trend; in calculus terms, the second derivative is positive. But there are a lot of functions with that property, and exponential functions are only 1 type. Sure, it's a common one, but so is parabolic, cubic, and other polynomial functions; a variety of trigonometric functions (over certain domains, like sine from -1 to 0); rational functions (again, over certain domains), etc.

    Sigmoid curves (colloquially known as S-curves) are very common in any situation where there's both a contagion factor (like popularity, word of mouth, network effects, etc.) and a limit on growth or maximum carrying capacity. The later is always the case when your function maps to percentages of a population since it caps at 100%.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago (1 child)

    Is there a predictable difference between an exponential growth curve and a sigmoid curve before the linear growth section? Like I suppose you'd be able to measure the dropoff in acceleration as velocity reaches its peak, but given that this is also a random sample, sample noise would make that impossible to determine in real time.

    I mean, it's a % of people who use x chart, so the only way it won't be sigmoid eventually is if it drops off as something else replaces it, but I don't think looking at the chart will help predict where the chart is going any more than how well that works with stock prices.

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