New matter being created with extremely low probability fits perfectly with our observations.

I do also want to point out that stuff like "The conservation of energy" law, in other words, that energy cannot be created or destroyed, does not hold for our universe with our current models. An expanding universe violates the time-translation symmetry

This is our current models. This is what our current physics says. And we know it's incomplete.

When it comes to scientific predictions, you always, always, need the caveat, "under our current model of".