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this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2023
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Here's the thing. Everyone will bike like the Dutch and the Dutch will bike even more. It's not a question of "if." We are already past peak oil. There will only be more wars and more climate change. Those who survive will be relying on bikes because petroleum won't be an option anymore and electric cars are not a real solution. Cities will become more dense, suburbs will decay, in all likelihood huge parts of the US will completely collapse because life will be impossible without cars. We know petroleum is finite and there is no other technology that will replace this.
We can prepare by rolling out infrastructure now, or we can just keep going and crash as hard as possible in to a wall. No matter what we do, we're going to stop using gas. I hope we do it on our terms rather than waiting for tons of people to die before we fix it, but I honestly don't have a lot of hope. But hey, some people are starting to wake up so maybe we can keep that going.
It’s an interesting scenario, but why count out electric cars?
Because there isn't enough lithium in the entire solar system to actually support everyone using electric cars at least with current technology. Even with projected advancement this won't happen. We're going to need better batteries using different materials. We'll probably get to a point where renewables will supplant the current tech but it's going to be rough.
Also, it is very important to understand that we have probably been in the first stages of collapse for a while now. About 30 years. We just haven't really noticed because the rot is uneven and even as societies collapse they still often continue to progress for some time in various ways. It's just now becoming evident because it can no longer be ignored.
As for bikes, it won't be so bad. We're adaptable creature and we'll find a way to make it work. Cities will get denser and greener, but with less cars they will become quieter and more welcoming places. Public transit options will begin to become viable for the majority of people once again. There's some hope that necessity will help drive a better future. If there is one thing humans are good at, it is adapting to their conditions.
Thanks for the detailed response! I agree with you with your thoughts on trajectory of society. I don’t have enough knowledge about earth lithium deposits to know if your statement about electric cars is true, but I was genuinely curious on your reasoning.
I agree we're probably past peak oil, but i think i disagree a bit on cities becoming more dense - i think video conferencing and remote work put much less impotus on people to congregate like we once did, and yes that likely will mean more strain on the roads, but i also think the electric cars will be more like a spreading out of electric storage and transmission than 100% used for transportation. (Again due to increasing popularity of remote work) having a store of electricity will be posh and help guard with the rolling brownouts due to climate change and terrorism interrupting the grid.