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The GPT Era Is Already Ending (www.theatlantic.com)

submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

159 comments fedilink hide all child comments

If this is the way to superintelligence, it remains a bizarre one. “This is back to a million monkeys typing for a million years generating the works of Shakespeare,” Emily Bender told me. But OpenAI’s technology effectively crunches those years down to seconds. A company blog boasts that an o1 model scored better than most humans on a recent coding test that allowed participants to submit 50 possible solutions to each problem—but only when o1 was allowed 10,000 submissions instead. No human could come up with that many possibilities in a reasonable length of time, which is exactly the point. To OpenAI, unlimited time and resources are an advantage that its hardware-grounded models have over biology. Not even two weeks after the launch of the o1 preview, the start-up presented plans to build data centers that would each require the power generated by approximately five large nuclear reactors, enough for almost 3 million homes.

https://archive.is/xUJMG

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

Care to elaborate?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

sure. 100% means something will happen every single time in the observed set. if something does not happen every single time, then it is not 100%.

this will not happen every single time. among all possible results, there will be results where none of the monkeys start any kind of shakespeare. there will be instances where every single work they start will be just the paper full of letter "a". or something else than shakespeare. as you add monkeys (approach the infinity) the smaller such chancegets, until it gets extremely unlikely, but it is not going to be zero.

imagine you are throwing a 6 sided dice hundred times and i ask you - is it possible there will be no 6 among those one hundred throws?

anyone who passed some basic math understand it is indeed unlikely, but it is not impossible. if you keep throwing long enough, there will be cases with zero 6s in it.

probability of that happening is (5/6)^100, which is 1,2 x 10^-8, eg it will happen roughly 1,2 times in ten million cases. not likely, but not impossible.

in 1000 dice throws, the chance drops to (5/6)^1000, roughly 6,6 x 10^(-80), or 6,6 in 100 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 cases.

fun fact: the above number (1 with 80 zeros) is called One Hundred Quinvigintillion (had to google that indeed).

if you further increase the number of throws in the series, the chance of not having single 6 will be getting even smaller, but never zero.

or in other word, if you raise 5/6 to any positive number, the resulting number is always positive number.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=%285%2F6%29%5En

for further study, the relevant concept here is limit of the function

we say that limit of the above function is zero, which means it will approach the zero really close (infinitely close), but will never reach it.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 week ago (1 children)

Thanks for elaborating. I knew limits were going to show up.

You make a good point, although I would like to point out that one hundred quinvigintillion is basically right next to the number 1 on the number line that goes to infinity. The chance of the monkeys not writing Shakespeare is infinitesimally small. You winning every possible lottery every day for the rest of your life is infinitely more probable than the monkeys not writing Shakespeare.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 6 days ago

is basically right next to the number 1 on the number line that goes to infinity.

you probably meant to say 1 in (...) is right next to zero, but it is not, there is infinite number of numbers between them 😀

The chance (...) is infinitesimally small

yes, it is, but it is not zero, which is what i tried to relay. it may be just fun fact, but one day that knowledge may prove itself useful.

You winning every possible lottery every day for the rest of your life is infinitely more probable than the monkeys not writing Shakespeare

well, if you really have infinite number of monkeys, than any finite number can't compete with it.

since i made the following text before i realized i misread your statement, i'll leave it here anyway, to show how incredibly small the number in your lottery idea is.

i'll make rough estimate, based on my mini country, that there is at least 1 lotteries per 1 million people, which would make it at least 8000 lotteries existing in the world. i think it is far more, but i will err on the side of caution in these estimates.

for winning a lottery, i will count not only the big win, but also shitty wins where you buy a ticket for a dollar and win two dollars. lets say your chance of winning "something" is 1/100.

and lets say you have 40 years to live.

your chance of winning every possible lottery in the world for the rest of your life (under the assumption that you can afford the original 8000 tickets) is

that's number that has numeral one and then 233 million 600 thousand zeroes below the fraction line of the result 😜 to put that into context, it is estimated that the there are between 10^78 to 10^82 atoms in the observable universe.