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Current front page of /r/politics. Do you ever wish you could just turn your brain off and go back to being a lib? (hexbear.net)
submitted 2 years ago by to c/dredge_tank@hexbear.net
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Sometimes I miss the 2016 version of myself, where I would get a mild dopamine boost about funny jokes about the orange man, or seeing a celebrity endorse my favorite DNC war criminal - blissfully unaware of global politics, war, and genocide.

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[–] 23 points 2 years ago* (1 child)

I used to be like this in 2016 too. I listened obsessively to the 538 podcast and read everything on their website. Then, on election day, Trump won the electoral college while Hillary won the popular vote. 538 had never covered this possibility. I know because I really did follow them obsessively for months. This world of r/politics headlines has only the most tenuous connection to the actual material world. If you follow liberalism closely, sooner or later it leads you over a cliff.

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  • [–] 13 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

    538 had a 30% chance of Trump winning. Here's the last analysis prior to the election. Of my friends following politics at the time, I was the only one who thought Trump had a chance and was slightly worried explicitly because I was following 538.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton

    Edit: I reread your comment and realized you meant specifically the scenario where Clinton won the popular vote but lost the electoral college, but Mr bronze's model gave that scenario a 10.5% chance if you look at the bottom of the final 2016 forecast, and it's also mentioned briefly in the analysis I posted above

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