Electric Vehicles

I feel like we've had this discussion elsewhere... :-) I apologize for the long reply, if so.

Here's why I think battery swap makes sense:

• For the vast majority of people, cars are a means to an end. Like the saying: people don't want a drill, they want a hole. They want to get from point A to B, get something done, then come back and get on with their life.
• Charging for 10-40 minutes at a time adds friction to the A to B and back process. People are used to stopping for gas, gritting their teeth at how expensive it is, filling up, then moving on and not giving it another thought.
• Charging while shopping/parking, etc. is fine, except when the spots are all taken. As more people get EVs, this will happen more often. There's no point having an infinite battery if you can't find an open charger when you're running into a store.
• L2 charging at home is convenient. They should keep letting people do that. But it adds $500-$2K to the cost of switching from ICE to EV. It's also not easily available to people in rental apartments and high-rise condos. Some landlords are adding L2 chargers, but now you have to deal with charger congestion. Same with L2 chargers at offices, grocery stores, and parking lots.
• Not having L2 at home means L1 (take forever), public L2 (see above), or having to pop into L3 chargers every few days (broken units, congested, expensive, affects life of battery).
• L2 charging off home solar and battery is the BEST (zero blackouts, zero monthly power bills 🎉, and feeling superior to mere mortals). But now we've added $5-$30K to the switching cost. Definitely a luxury. Also, Fuck You Todd, you supercilious prick.
• J1772, CHAdeMO, CCS1, CCS2, GB/T, NACS. Just shoot me now. Try explaining that insanity to Grandpa without feeling like a tool.
• Most decently made ICE cars last a long time (10-40 years) and have a resale/trade-in value. The things that lower the value over time (engine, cylinders, transmission, radiator, catalytic converter, exhaust) don't exist in EVs.
• The main thing that can wear down and affect resale in EVs is... the battery. By most accounts, 10 years and number of fast-charge cycles is the limit. Then you either replace the battery or take a big loss on resale.
• A lot of hybrid Priuses had to have battery replacements once they hit the 10-year mark. Nissans used to show the number of recharge cycles adding to anxiety levels over how much time was left on the car.

Here's why swapping makes sense: it removes all of the above.

Every issue becomes a non-issue if there were universal swap stations sprinkled around neighborhoods.

Like most things, there's a trade-off:

• I'm getting a nasty old battery on this swap.
• I don't actually own the battery in my car. That affects the resale value.
• There is no single battery pack standard. It's not a scalable solution.

The first one is mitigated by the fact that the solution is to just swap again. Or even better, have a smart BMS that reports back to the swap station data on charge depletion. That way it knows to take the bad battery packs out of circulation or refurbish the cells. It can also setup economics where the older packs cost less to swap, for people willing to trade fuel cost for convenience.

The second is where I think the logic is inverted. The battery locked inside my car is degrading over time and is actually dragging down the resale value. Taking it out of the equation means the resale value is now based on other attributes: wear and tear on motors, telematics, and consumables (tires, brakes, etc) all of which will be cheaper to replace than the battery.

The third one is the most important. We're 10-15 years into the EV adoption cycle. It's not too late to plan ahead, if people actually demand it. NACS adoption announcements show us it's possible for carmakers to agree on a single standard.

Notice I haven't mentioned distance travel. That's because stopping for a long charge can be a positive experience for some people who could use the physical break, but a pain in the ass for those who need to get to their destination quickly. Depends on which camp you fall into.

The distribution of non-Tesla supercharger networks in the U.S. is so uneven people have to decide whether to take an EV or ICE, depending on how close their destination is to a major highway. Yes, we can build out thousands more stations, but that's not addressing the concern of those who just want to get from A to B and don't have hours to spare.

Outside the U.S. the situation is much better, which is why EV adoption is going more smoothly (helps having a better selection of models). Also, in many parts of the world, public transportation is actually viable, so NO CAR is an option. But the A to B time and resale value concerns stand for many people looking for their next car.

Back to EVs. Here in the U.S. if you drive on a busy holiday to a major metropolitan area, once you get there, you're risking spending a substantial part of that trip waiting and worrying. For a spot to open up, for how long to budget for charging, and how much to trust the app telling you there's an open spot.

Personal anecdote: Today, I wouldn't buy an EV in Southern California unless I could charge at home. Next time visiting, I'll rent an ICE. It's that bad.

When it comes to charging stations, I personally like talking to people and have had great conversations with some colorful characters while waiting, but that's also time I'm not spending on the purpose of the trip.

Again, battery swapping would solve all that.

The first time I saw it in action was 7-8 years ago in Taiwan with Gogoro scooters (https://www.gogoro.com/gogoro-network/). Saw someone ride up to a 7-11, pull out their battery, pop in a new one, and be gone in 60 seconds. I was sold.

Bottom line: the best user experience is not having to spend a minute thinking about charging. Ever.

[ Again, sorry for the long soliloquy. This is the sort of topic best hashed over a pint while someone points at how daft I'm being. ]

Yup, and it makes the car look more future-ish to impress potential buyers! It's a win for shareholders and a loss for safety and ease of use.

Doesn't the USA subsidize electric vehicles a ton too with tax credits and other subsidies at both the consumer and producer levels?

We subsidize things all the time too. Foresight and planning with good timing while we have a government that implodes for stupidity and a failure at fundamental game theory is no one's fault but our own. We had a traitor of a president and by all metrics the worst president in all of our history and he is still running for office again. This is the find out part of "fuck around and find out." We hired pure corruption, and now corruption can't catch up to the real world. We failed. The McCarthy bullshit about blaming China for our incompetence is nonsense.

The vast majority of US patents are absolute trash designed to prevent competition for all the wrong reasons. They are used as frivolous nonsense in almost every case. They act as the primary barrier to the average person. There are very few spaces where a startup can build anything big based on real innovation. Yes, I want to make a market so volatile that size itself is a liability of impossible odds. I want to see the oligarchy go broke because exceptionalism is a myth. We are all a product of our environment and our opportunities. Most people have very few opportunities now, so take out the gatekeepers. We're failing anyways. The primary candidate for president is a traitor. You can't get a bigger sign of total failure than that.

They gotta call it the Lightning Bug too or no sale.

We don't need 5 star ratings in a small grocery getter car... not everything needs to be built to atmospheric re-entry standards.