this post was submitted on 29 Oct 2023
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I wonder how much will the russians advance while ukrainian munitions are low. Perhaps they can make decisive gains in the next six months?
Almost certainly, and the ammunition situation is only going to get worse for Ukraine going forward. The west has now run through the existing stocks, and the industrial capacity doesn't exist to produce ammo at the rate it's being consumed. On top of that, the west is now forced to divert some of that to the crisis in the Middle East. On the other hand, Russian ammo production has been ramping up. I think we've hit the inflection point where Russian army will be getting stronger while Ukrainian army will continue to deteriorate. If things keep going the way they are then we'll likely see a collapse in Ukrainian combat capacity because most of the motivated and trained people will be dead.
This was always the inevitable outcome, it was just a matter of when
The hilarious part is that lots of people in the west still don't understand what's happening.