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Israeli Flashpoint - Localized Skirmish? Or the Beginning of Major Global Black Swan?
(simplicius76.substack.com)
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I think you can make the argument that the US might have known Pearl Harbour could be a target, and would have been a good excuse to get involved in the war. But the attack itself, coupled with a general offensive across pretty much all of east asia, was not something anyone thought could be possible. Not at the level they did, anyway. The attack itself did very little actual long term damage (sorry to all the people who died) to the yanks fighting capabilities though.