this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2024
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[–] [email protected] 39 points 1 month ago (20 children)

Better not invade Taiwan as it will go the same way as Ukraine

[–] [email protected] 60 points 1 month ago (19 children)

China is one hell of a lot more competent than Russia

I think the main saving grace is that whatever posturing individual people want to do, China has a good thing going on with trade with the West which no one involved on either side wants to fuck up.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 month ago

See, this is an interesting question. Are they?

They certainly succeed in giving off that vibe. They seemingly have seen a lot of economic growth while Russia stagnated. I would probably guess that they are, indeed, more competent.

But, they're an even bigger unknown than Russia. They're notoriously opaque and at least sometimes cook the books when showing the outside world their economy growth, or stuff like their rate of fatalities during COVID.

They seem to have a much bigger GDP and a much more loyal citizenship than Russia. We think their technology is better than Russia's, but not as good as ours.

But, we won't really know if they are a paper tiger until we see them in a real conflict. They could, with the advantage of proximity, be unassailable by the west if they invade Taiwan. Or we might see themselves completely blunder trying to stop a rebellion in a small country. I don't think anybody guessed Ukraine would hold up like they have, even with western supply lines.

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