The RNC’s debate plans have a major, largely unnoticed problem

As the 51-day qualifying period begins on Saturday, a review of FiveThirtyEight’s database of GOP primary polling nationally and in the four early “carve out” states shows that only two polls out of 70 conducted in the previous 51 days would meet those requirements.

While it’s a good bet that there will be at least three qualifying polls conducted between now and the Aug. 21 deadline, the RNC’s criteria could spell trouble for candidates outside of the five polling leaders: former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.).