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submitted 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

more like thucydideez nuts, gottem

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of a satellite image from MizarVision, a Chinese firm that has recently shown pride in being sanctioned for showing uncensored images of the Middle East. The West is not allowing up-to-date satellite imagery of the region to hide destruction.


As always, my weekly summary/preamble is in spoilers below.

preambleMilitary news remained relatively subdued last week, with the main front continuing to be the Lebanon border. With dozens of vehicles destroyed and many more Zionist casualties, they are now desperately searching for a solution to the FPV drone threat, with certain analysts characterizing the whole situation as the entity stumbling foot-first into a bear trap (hence the megathread title). Unfortunately for them, two better and more resourceful militaries have spent the last year or two also searching for a solution and have generally failed - with anti-drone strategies consisting mainly of 1) build your own cheap drones designed to physically intercept their cheap drones and 2) separate your forces up rather than conducting large frontal assaults WW2-style and accept that you're gonna have to fight for many months to gain substantial ground. This also explains why they're so eager to kickstart a civil war in Lebanon, although as I've stated before, I don't personally know whether that would be a silver bullet given how the Lebanese army has been deliberately not allowed to become a threatening force due to Zionist fears, and indeed, I don't know how many Lebanese citizens and soldiers would fight against the only force in their country fighting against an army trying to annex their territory and which murders hundreds of people at a time in aerial bombings on their cities.

Aside from the ever-worsening global economic catastrophe, the main event has been the US visiting China. Trump clearly intended to time the summit such that it took place after subjugating Iran and perhaps also Cuba. However, with the former goal not even remotely achieved, and the latter goal delayed - hopefully indefinitely, though the US still seems pretty intent on it - it all amounted to a big nothingburger. Marxist economist Michael Roberts has written up a great piece on the current state of the US-China economic conflict, stating among things that, despite the last decade of US sanctions and economic warfare, the Chinese economy has done extremely well, building up their own domestic industries to replace commodities lost from sanctions. China has, up to this point, refused to withdraw its aid from Iran, and seems to be looking to start moving its tankers through the Strait via Iran's new tolling mechanism.

China obviously continues to maintain its position on Taiwan, and Trump has continued the US tradition of respecting this in words and disrespecting it in actions, but it's becoming clear to everybody but the most delusional diehards that the US will not be fighting China in and around the Pacific for at least a couple decades, and likely never will. There is little choice. The Ramadan War has definitively proven that the US has been severely militarily and logistically weakened over the decades despite skyrocketing military budgets, and much of their equipment, strategies, and tactics are woefully outdated for the modern battlefield. The prospect of the US fighting a war against China and not immediately losing has gone from "almost implausible" to "hilariously absurd". Unable to meaningfully impede China, the US will have to content itself to increasingly ineffective sanctions campaigns and bullying/overthrowing nations that do not currently have much of a capacity to resist. In that vein, one hopes that Iran and friends will share their expertise in drone technology and underground fortification around the world. The age of the tunnel is upon us.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 48 points 17 hours ago

https://archive.ph/VM4Tp

U.S. bears brunt of Israel’s missile defense, Pentagon assessments show

Amid hostilities with Iran, the American military expended far more advanced interceptors to protect Israel than Israeli forces did, according to Defense Department data.

more

The U.S. military has depleted much of its inventory of advanced missile-defense interceptors after expending far more high-end munitions defending Israel amid hostilities with Iran than Israeli forces used themselves, according to Defense Department assessments described to The Washington Post. The imbalance, according to three U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, underscores the extent to which Washington has shouldered the burden of countering Iranian ballistic missile strikes during Operation Epic Fury, and raises questions about U.S. military readiness and security commitments around the world. The United States launched more than 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, interceptors in defense of Israel — roughly half of the Pentagon’s total inventory — along with more than 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors fired from naval vessels in the eastern Mediterranean, said the U.S. officials, who, like others in this article, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters. By contrast, Israel fired fewer than 100 of its Arrow interceptors and around 90 David’s Sling interceptors, some of which were used against less sophisticated projectiles fired by Iran-backed groups in Yemen and Lebanon.

Military analysts said the data described to The Post offers a rare window into how the United States and Israel work together. “The numbers are striking,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “The United States absorbed most of the missile defense mission while Israel conserved its own magazines. Even if the operational logic was sound, the United States is left with roughly 200 THAAD interceptors and a production line that can’t keep pace with demand.” The shortage of U.S. interceptors has alarmed U.S. allies in Asia, particularly Japan and South Korea, which rely on the United States as a deterrent to potential threats from North Korea and China.

get fucked compradors, maybe you should've been vassals to a country that actually fucking makes things some-controversy

“That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran,” said Grieco.

yeah, that's, uh, kind of how imperial overextension works

U.S. and Israeli officials routinely tout their close cooperation and the strength of Israel’s multilayered air-defense system. But the Defense Department assessments suggest a more lopsided dynamic. “In total, the U.S. shot around 120 more interceptors and engaged twice as many Iranian missiles,” said a U.S. administration official. If the United States and Israel resume hostilities against Iran in the coming days, as President Donald Trump has threatened to do, the U.S. military is likely to expend an even greater share of interceptors because of a recent decision by the Israeli military to take some of its missile defense batteries offline for maintenance, said an administration official. “The imbalance will likely be exacerbated if fighting restarts,” the official said.

In a statement, the Pentagon defended the balance of military resources used between Israel and the United States. “Ballistic missile interceptors are just one tool in a vast network of systems and capabilities that comprise a layered and integrated air defense network,” said Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman. “Both Israel and the United States carried the defensive burden equitably during Operation Epic Fury, which saw both countries employ fighter aircraft, counter-UAS systems, and various other advanced air and missile defense capabilities with maximal effectiveness.” The Israeli government also defended the approach. “Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury were coordinated at the highest and closest levels, to the benefit of both countries and their allies,” the Israeli Embassy in Washington said in a statement. “The U.S. has no other partner with the military willingness, readiness, shared interests, and capabilities of Israel.”

capabilities such as "sending a bunch of our lieutenant generals (all 19 years old btw) to stand out in the open and, to everyone's shock, get droned"

Since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel have worked together closely, killing Iran’s supreme leader and scores of senior Iranian military and political leaders while laying waste to Iran’s navy and air force. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was central to persuading Trump to go to war, promising an offensive that would inspire regime change and rid the country of its ability to develop a nuclear weapon, said U.S. officials. But tensions have grown between the two allies as the war has proven more challenging than either leader anticipated. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked global energy supplies and ramped up inflation. |Despite Trump’s claims that Iran’s missile arsenal has been “mostly decimated,” Tehran retains about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, according to U.S. intelligence. Much of Iran’s highly enriched uranium probably remains in the nuclear facilities bombed by the U.S. and Israel last year. On Tuesday, Netanyahu and Trump held a tense phone call about the path forward, said U.S. and Middle Eastern officials. The Israeli leader’s persistent pressure to restart the war has irritated some U.S. officials, particularly given the strain that renewed fighting would impose on the Pentagon’s munitions supply.

and are these "irritated" officials going to actually fucking do something about it?

“Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this, because they never see the back end,” said a second administration official. It’s unclear whether the United States’ munitions shortages factor into Trump’s deliberations over restarting the war. Earlier this week, Trump said he called off an imminent military strike on Iran at the behest of America’s Arab allies who urged him to consider a peace deal with Iran that would restrict its nuclear program in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. “We’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. “We’ll either have a deal, or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty.” In preparation for a potential resumption of hostilities, the United States moved more naval assets near Israel to provide additional protection from Iranian threats.

If fighting does resume, the extent to which Iran’s allies in the region may join in will be a significant factor, said U.S. officials. During the last round of fighting, Israel could generate only 50 percent of the airstrikes by the end of March compared with the beginning of the war because its aircraft and pilots were “worn down” by operations against Houthi militants in Yemen and airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, said a U.S. official. “The sortie degradation is important,” said Grieco. “The IDF was worn down by Gaza, Lebanon, and the question I have is whether Israeli commanders underestimated their ability to sustain operational tempo.”

lol. lmao. can't even sustain a month of bombing without losing half of your fucking capability to just maintenance and stress.

Given that Israel uses a lot of the same planes that the US does, I feel like it's not unrealistic to assume the US itself also suffered similar degradation in their sortie rates, probably somewhat less since the US hat more planes in total at least. Now imagine what would happen in a war against China, against a far more capable air defense network, and with US bases getting even greater quantities of missiles and drones thrown at 'em.

According to officials, the two countries agreed in advance to a ballistic missile-defense framework that effectively ensured that high-end interceptors such as THAAD and ship-based missiles would absorb the bulk of ballistic threats to Israel. Israel relies more heavily on lower-tier systems such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling to counter projectiles from groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, while conserving its more sophisticated interceptors. The result, officials said, was a “significant” drawdown of U.S. stockpiles while Israel was able to maintain its higher-end air defense stockpiles. The dynamic seemed to clash with Trump’s “America First,” mantra, said Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the libertarian CATO Institute. “Since Trump took office again, Israel’s position makes sense: our priorities first, our resources last,” he said. “Why Trump has tried to make this America First is less clear.” After the Pentagon last year reportedly disclosed having only 25 percent of the Patriot air defense inventory needed to fulfill existing U.S. defense plans, it should’ve been a wake up call, said Logan. “Why this wasn’t a screeching siren to Trump officials is a mystery,” he said.

this post was submitted on 18 May 2026
126 points (100.0% liked)

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