Mere hours before Trump's 8pm Tuesday deadline yesterday, Pakistan's government contacted Iran with a US-written proposal for a two-week ceasefire, explicitly stated to also include Lebanon, during which they would negotiate a permanent end to the war on the basis of Iran's 10 Points. Among other things, these points include 1) maintaining strict control (joint with Oman) over Hormuz, complete with a toll; 2) the end of sanctions on Iran; 3) keeping their enriched uranium; 4) a withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East [stated by the Supreme Leadership Council but not in the 10 Points, so who knows], and 5) some plausible guarantee that Iran would never be attacked again. I've heard rumors that China may have prodded Iran to accept these terms.
In theory, these are relatively confident and maximalist demands. In practice, Iran has already achieved military and economic control over Hormuz and the withdrawal of many US troops and bases from the region, so at least a few of Iran's demands are, to a greater or lesser extent, already achieved, and with little hope for an increasingly exhausted US to undo these achievements short of nukes.
A couple hours after the ceasefire, the Zionist entity began a wave of airstrikes in Lebanon, killing hundreds of civilians, as well as flying drones into Iranian airspace. This was a strange move to make even if you assume - very sensibly - that the US is completely agreement non-capable: why not agree to the ceasefire and simply pretend to negotiate for two weeks while regrouping/repairing what assets you can and then start hitting Iran again?
One theory is that the Zionists are testing to what degree Iran is actually willing to have solidarity with Lebanon and Hezbollah. While the Resistance has been relatively united since October 7th, the formation of separate peaces instead of negotiating terms as a united front has been a major exploitable weakness. Alternatively, it's been proposed that the US didn't even consider using the ceasefire to regroup and deceive Iran, and that Trump merely wanted a way to chicken out of his threat on Iran's electrical grid - the fact that US officials have since stated that Iran's 10 Points were not the same ones they agreed to is a point supporting this, I suppose. If the conflict resumes and Trump does not deliver another 48 hour deadline (and/or makes it something silly like a month from now) then this could be the explanation.
From Iran, I am getting the sense that a lot is happening behind the scenes. Statements from top officials like Araghchi have stated quite plainly that there will be no ceasefire and no negotiations unless the Zionists stop attacking Lebanon, but as of ~24 hours after the ceasefire began, there has been no significant military response from Iran yet. There have apparently been phone calls between Araghchi and numerous regional officials, but it is unknown to what end. All the while, the global economic situation continues to deteriorate. Over the next week or two, the last tankers that left Hormuz before it closed will arrive at their destinations. If the missile exchanges begin once more, then the West, much like most of the rest of the world, will be experiencing all sorts of fuel, energy, food, and product shortages while trying to justify why they broke the ceasefire to kill more Lebanese civilians.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Sounds tentatively good. Avoiding tolerance and other side effects could be big.
But marijuana isn't physically addictive, and psychological addiction can literally happen with anything that makes you feel good or better. So it seems like this is buying into shitty anti-drug propaganda in order to make the breakthrough sound better. Especially in the title.
Maybe I misunderstand what it means here, but I thought marijuana was physically addictive, at least in the sense that someone’s physiological tolerance increases with repeated use, and odds for withdrawal symptoms increases after stopping repeated use
Marijuana stays in the body for a longer period of time than the harder drugs which decreases the chemical dependancy you have on it.
It’s very easy to go cold turkey as it tapers off naturally.
Harder drugs cycle through the body quickly, so once your body starts seeing it as a chemical need to fulfill, you have to keep feeding that need if you don’t want to experience withdrawal symptoms.
I'm sorry, but this is dangerous misinformation.
A drug lingering in the body can affect the timing of withdrawal or how to best taper if ceasing, but it does not determine whether a person becomes tolerant or dependent on it. Benzodiazepines are one of many examples, some of them are very long-acting drugs that remain in the body for days, (like diazepam aka valium can linger over a week) yet tolerance and dependence of benzos is notorious, partly because of how severe, even deadly, the withdrawal can be. You can die from suddenly stopping a significant benzo habit. You cannot die from suddenly stopping even a massive cannabis habit, yet some benzos linger in your metabolism much longer than cannabinoids or their metabolites. The length of time a drug is active with the receptors in your brain definitely does effect withdrawal profile, but it is a comparatively small factor in what is capable of causing dependence. The fact that it's easy to go cold turkey off of marijuana has essentially nothing to do with its metabolic duration but rather how differently it acts (its pharmacology) on your brain compared to hard drugs.
I'm begging hexbears not to spread drug or medical information they have heard as if it is fact without verifying that it's true.
Thanks for the correction
Tolerance increase yes, but I'm not aware of any withdrawal. When I took a break after daily use I did get a hankering for a day or two, but after that literally no feeling of compulsion. YMMV
Yeah. With opiates, withdrawal makes you sick. In extreme cases it can even be life threatening, without proper care and management. Pot has nothing like that.
then there is alcohol
You feel the same way whenever you stop doing anything that had become a habit you enjoyed, whether it's an activity or something you consume. If you enjoy eating chocolate every day and suddenly you stop, of course you're gonna get cravings for a while, but that doesn't mean it's addictive in a physical chemical sense.
Well, I disagree it's not addictive enough to be annoying, it obviously belongs to a totally different category than opiods & shit, there's been a lot of bad messaging about it I agree. I think it becomes much more addictive when you're out of shape & stressed, but that was a good portion of my life, very skinny & underslept.
Setting that aside, can we agree pain relief without cognitive impairment is worthwhile? "Shitty anti-drug propaganda" is a pretty hot take, it's mild considering the history of marijuana in East Asia + SEA. Lotta ppl got killed, these things take time.
I don't agree with most drug legalization libertarian messaging, I just choom. See, social science sucks. In America, they're totally blind to the effects of corruption & imperialism on anti-drug campaigns. As crazy as it sounds, large-scale pot farms can be completely stamped out, leaving only modest gardeners. 👨🌾🤫 Plus, rehab programs are a lot more effective when they're not like, Synanon-influenced cult shit (don't think people who smoke weed need rehab programs just saying their ineffectiveness is another wedge for total legalization campaigns). Do you follow or is this just rambling? I was out for drinks so excuse me lmao.
That's what I refer to above as psychological addiction. Many, many things can become addictive under those stresses. Including things like television, video games, and even dieting and exercise (the "addiction" there being people insisting on doing it even when it is detrimental, such as causing malnutrition, exacerbating injuries, and getting in the way of one's social relations).
Absolutely. I wasn't claiming everything about this was propaganda; just the "non-addictive" framing.
Dieting & exercise is not an addiction, the dysfunctional + destructive kind is fueled by body dysmorphia + poor social skills (I recommend Martin Berkhan, one of the only good chuds, he's too stupid to even be a chud, someone gave him 12 Rules for Life & he pretended to read the first chapter, then wrote a negative review).
You're describing reward systems & how they interact with hyperpalatable food. This is how people ended up framing the consumers of human trafficking videos as the real victims (not roping you into that just saying). Cannabis is a lot better than that stuff, nobody has sex & eats a hot dog to get over shooting someone. Well, they do, but then they annihilate their families (they don't make a mixtape).
Okay, here's an experiment, try not smoking for a few days & look for the following: insomnia, irritability, decreased appetite, nausea, anxiety, & a return of any pain you were better-ignoring with increased sensitivity. If you smoke constantly you will even get reduced gastric emptying, which can lead to constipation. There are all very desirable factors of addiction to avoid. (Why I stick to ¼-½ gram 5 days apart, someone in the thread was going through 1 cart every 3 days, which is like 3-5 grams of my shit.) Is it hypocritical for people to ban marijuana (which I believe should be done medically through a sane system, very pie-in-the-sky I know) when alcohol causes physical withdrawal symptoms I am experiencing as we speak? Yes, but I just think boiling it down to physical withdrawal symptoms is a reductive view of chemical dependency.
Described in the most general way possible, yeah I could be "addicted" to Death's Dynamic Shroud #goodmusicalbums, but I can feel that weed is changing so much shit about how my body works, it's not as passive as "I didn't listen to Transcendence Bot & eat soup recently, maybe that's why I have less Joy", it's like oh fuck my work performance is severely inhibited. It's an amazing tool for creativity & weightlifting recovery & I am skeptical any treatment can fully replace that, specifically the way psychedelics form links between the mind & body in uhhh uh "higher definition" (???)
Using terminology as a bridge between social science, pop psychology, & medicine is extremely fraught so I apologize for leaning on anecdotes to the contrary at parts (I think it's time for unc to take a nap 🧘♂️)