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Russian sources warn relentless Ukrainian Starlink drone strikes will collapse Crimea's air defenses within a year. (thelemmy.club)

submitted 2 months ago by LaFinlandia@sopuli.xyz to c/ukraine@sopuli.xyz

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[-] auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com 0 points 2 months ago

You don't need 100 mines to stop trade; you only need the possibility of one.

Full minesweeping operation across contested waters: 6–12 months minimum under favorable conditions

Insurance markets require a sustained incident-free period: 6–12 months after clearance

2 years is a floor estimate. 2-5 the likely range, it could go higher. Proxy actors funded by Russia retain the capability to re-mine at any point, restarting the clock

If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the US is the only supplier with enough scale to even attempt to fill the gap. To get that gas, Europe would have to outbid Asia. This will result in energy rationing & industrial shutdown.

[-] Valmond@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 months ago

Focusing on the only point where you're not totally off the rocker won't help lol. A shame because those kind of discussions are usually interesting.

Putin is losing and there is nothing anyone can do more than prolong the suffering.

[-] auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Wtf are you on about I addressed all your points apart from the number which is estimated by combining: independently observed oil price moves, export volumes, the discount at which Russian crude sells & the share of extra revenue that actually reaches the Russian state.

If you have a better number im all ears.

Before this shock, Russia looked like it had about 1 year of relatively easy fiscal cushion left. With oil prices rising due to the Strait disruption and a temporary U.S. waiver allowing delivery of some stranded Russian cargoes, that timeline is likely extended, possibly by a significant margin, wtf is controversial about that ? Oil is currently just above the level that stabilizes Russia’s budget.

[-] Valmond@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 2 months ago

I'm sorry I thought you had more points, your whole idea that the straight of Hormuz will be closed for 5 years is actually your only point it seems and it is just not true. There are iranian tankers crossing it now.